Arctic constabulary, not military
If you believe the rhetoric emanating from pundits on the Arctic, it’s hard not to conclude a conflict is looming on the horizon. But the “purveyors of polar peril,” as professor Franklyn Griffiths has called them, may be stirring a pot that doesn’t exist.
The senior fellow at Massey College at the University of Toronto and a leading authority on the Arctic told DEFSEC Atlantic that while there are at least five potential issues of contention in the region – Hans Island, the Lincoln Sea, the Beaufort Sea, the outer continental shelf and the Northwest Passage – none pose a conventional military threat for Canada.
For starters, Canadian sovereignty over all but Hans Island is not being disputed. And where disputes exist, negotiations are underway or there is an agreement to disagree. “Use it or lose it should be struck” from the Canadian lexicon, he said in reference to Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s northern decree.
While the status of the Northwest Passage may be the most contentious, Griffiths has some sage observations: ice conditions are unlikely to change so much in the next decades that the routes that make up the passage will be easily navigable. Alternate sea routes such as the Panama Canal will still be cheaper for many years to come. The Arctic will be a shipping destination rather than an ocean to transit through.
In addition, with little change to the American emphasis on homeland security, there is much incentive to “agree to disagree” on issues such as the NWP and the Beaufort while continuing to cooperate on continental security.
Consequently, what is needed is a constabulary focus rather than a military approach, with an emphasis on situational awareness, increased RCMP and Cost Guard presence, and search and rescue and emergency response capability.
Griffiths argued for a common regional strategy with the U.S. and noted that such an approach would provide opportunity for defence and security industrial cooperation – music to an industry sizing up its business opportunities north of 60.
